The Latest “Worst Case Scenario” for Bitcoin Places the Bear Market Low at Around $6K

According to Filbfilb of Decentrader, if Bitcoin were to capitulate, the price would likely return to a level double that of the bear market’s 2018 low.


In this bad market, Bitcoin still has the chance of falling below $7,000, according to the most recent worst-case scenario forecast.

Trading platform DecenTrader announced targets for a BTC price bottom in its most recent livestream, which was broadcast on November 24.

Filbfilb, the analyst behind Decentrader, offered a glimpse of how low Bitcoin could go.

The worst case scenario is that Bitcoin capitulates.

This has to happen eventually for most markets and price action is one way in which this plays out.”

A number of analysts have suggested that BTC will not drop below $6,000 in the current bear market. Even if some altcoins face more serious challenges, it is likely that Bitcoin will also be subject to an extended period of low volatility.

However, Filbfilb claims that these predictions are based on a Bitcoin price that doesn’t drop below $7,000. The worst case scenario has BTC hitting almost double that figure.

Analyst says that Bitcoin has “old-school, rock-hard support.”

In his most recent BTC/USD forecast, Decentrader co-founder Filbfilb predicted that the pair could fall below $10,000 in the near future.

In reference to a bidding range around $6,500, he remarked, “In my worst case scenario, I believe that’s probably where we wind up, like oldschool, rock-hard support.”

According to him, purchasers would “definitely start refilling their bags” at this level, which was about double the lows of the March 2020 COVID-19 collapse and the 2018 bear market.

Filbfilb said that additional severe effects from the FTX crash could eliminate bid support higher up the order book, creating the possibility of such a surrender event, even though they are “unlikely” in the current situation.

That seems unlikely until we have more information, he said. “As I’ve said, I think the fact that we haven’t dumped harder than we actually really could have done is a good indicator for the bulls.

According to Cointelegraph, given recent developments, BTC/USD has actually managed to dip less in relation to its prior all-time highs than during prior bear markets.

Chart of the BTC/USD price decline from all-time highs. from Glassnode

Whether a further dive is required to match those bottoms and finish the present decline is a related topic of discussion.

For Bitcoin to reach a bottom and avoid the worst case scenario, according to Filbfilb, crypto would need to “dodge some bullets” related to FTX impact, and macro markets would also need to remain stable.

BTC price maneuvers indicate bulls market abysses

Philip Swift, a co-founder of Decentrader and the creator of the data source LookIntoBitcoin, discussed further recent chart phenomena elsewhere in the live stream.

One of them was the rising number of Bitcoin wallets that currently contain at least one Bitcoin, with the total soon to pass one million.

According to Swift, this is a direct outcome of exchange withdrawals due to FTX.

Even though it’s 18 months away, the subsequent block subsidy halving event for Bitcoin in 2024 will also become a significant narrative emphasis, he continued.

Consequently, “some positive influence on pricing in terms of media coverage and anticipation of that next halving occurrence” will follow.

While some analysts predict an extended bear market, others foresee a more optimistic outcome. Only time will tell which scenario will come true and whether Bitcoin prices can break their current trend of declining values. But one thing is clear: investors are keeping a close eye on every development as they wait to see how the story unfolds.

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